Application of The Basic Income Concept In Ukrainian Economy
Finance for the social sphere remains a great challenge in modern economy. The necessity of adequate living standards under limited resources raises a complicated problem for governments to provide appropriate distributing mechanism among the most vulnerable sections of the population. The paper analysed the concept of absolute basic income, which in some EU countries is considered as a substitution for a modern system of social security.
Inequality of incomes creates not only a social problem but it is also an obstacle in the way of economic growth. It leads to the conclusion that government should provide some strategy to avoid high inequality. The model of rational individual with certain basic income is under investigation. The analysis of the model suggests that the presence of additional income not only facilitates more effective involvement of individuals to work, but it is a sort of indisputable factor for guaranteeing freedom of individuals and increasing their mutual respect. Thus, the idea of basic income, which spreads among European countries, has not only economic, but also political and psychological components that may affect the mentality of people in future.
It is demonstrated that the transition to a new social security schemes in Ukraine can accumulate from 856 to 1020 bln. UAH in 2015 prices. It can provide guaranteed monthly payments from 1928 to 2297 UAH per capita and from 482 to 574 USD per child without changing the structure of the budget in case of replacement minimum pensions, minimum wages and full monetization of privileges. Obviously, such strategy not only would improve the efficiency of budget spending, but also produce a multiplier effect on the economy by changing and optimizing the consumption patterns of the population, increasing the competition in all markets for a real consumer. It has a chance of reducing the struggle to obtain state funds through tenders. However, the transition to the new system can be implemented only after reforms in health, education, judicial systems, monetization of most privileges.
Gender Factors of Social and Economic Development of a Country
The article discusses the impact of gender asymmetry on the socio-economic development of the country. Authors detected factors that determine with high level of the probability social development of the society. Econometric relationship between the level of GDP per capita in comparative prices and the socio-cultural and gender factors are developed and estimated. The analysis showed that the level of individualism, indulgence, economic participation, and political empowerment of women in the society have direct linear correlation with GDP per capita. Power distance has opposite inverse correlation with the level of GDP. Application of regression analysis gave the possibility to divide all countries into 9 clusters with similar features. Two-dimensional matrix included GDP per capita and coefficient of implementation of a country gender and sociocultural potential. The recommendations for stimulating economic growth by smoothing gender gaps are proposed.
Problems of Changes of Human Resources in Ukrainian Universities
Higher Education of Ukraine. - 2016, №4 (1). - P. 78-81.
A new version of the Law "On Higher Education in Ukraine" was adopted in 2014, which was aimed at introducing real autonomy of higher education institutions to create conditions for increasing competition between them. However, the absence of fundamental changes within 2 years after the reform shows that there are problems that make it impossible to develop the potential of Ukrainian universities. This means that the situation in higher education requires not just the adoption of certain regulations, but the formation of new human resources, which could use every opportunity to fully integrate our education to the world system according to an appropriate level of globalization and competition. The paper analyzes reasons for the creation the system of higher education in Ukraine, which was based on a rigid hierarchical model that eliminates the possibility of flexible management. The analysis shows that the problems in higher education in Ukraine accumulated for a long time and were not caused by local errors. They are the result of existing distribution system of financial flows, which led ultimately to a significant drop in the quality of higher education in our country. Therefore, the state should take steps to introduce new models of university management, using approaches of leadership instead of management, which must use existing human resources of universities with optimal efficiency.
Economic Background for Increasing Higher Education Quality in Ukraine
Higher Education of Ukraine. - 2016, №4 (2). - P. 57-61.
Ukraine's accession to the Bologna Process, institutional changes in the country over the past decades should have led to considerable competition between universities in Ukraine. However, implementation of the educational reforms is hard to carry out, because of bumping sometimes in opposition or misunderstanding of the logic of reforms. For this reason, National Agency for quality assurance has not been functioning for two years, new standards of higher education have not been developed yet. The analysis of the experience of similar reforms in the EU shows that the obvious problems of educational reform in Ukraine are related primarily to economic reasons, including non-competitiveness of the domestic labour market. The paper shows the conditions for forming student-centred approach in Europe, factors that may stimulate universities to improve the quality of education. At the same time the article proves that the examined factors are absent in Ukraine that significantly hinders any educational reform. The occupation of the territory, currency devaluation, high level of corruption and shadow economy, raw-export economic model, in which companies are slightly interested in unique specialists, low integration into European markets led to the formation of the economy with extremely low wages. Such situation discourages the introduction of production automation, labour saving, increase skills and qualifications, etc. It led to a general decline in higher education, depreciation of acquired knowledge and skills, discouraging the vast majority of universities to improve the quality of higher education in Ukraine. In its turn, the emphasis on the quantitative indicators of universities but on the quality of education, has led to distortions of cultural features of Ukrainian teachers and scientists that will significantly hinder their integration into the European educational space. The article touches upon the problem of necessary changes to overcome these difficulties.
Economic and Mathematical Modelling Budget Investment Process in Ukraine and EU
Finance of Ukraine. - №11, 2016. - P. 94-108.
In the article the dynamics of capital expenditures was investigated in Ukraine during 2006 - 2015. Since 2011 their volume decreased gradually, and since 2013 there was a substantial decline. The authors developed and proposed their own methodology for assessing the effectiveness of capital expenditures by calculating the coefficient of efficiency for two periods: 2010 - 2012 and 2013 - 2015. When calculating this ratio one takes into account the parameter dynamics of the country and the investments of the state in different periods compared to the national average for the years 2010 -2015 and with those of other countries. The effectiveness of public investment in Ukraine remains very low and the positive trend to reduce capital expenditures and the corresponding increase their efficiency was caused by more adverse economic situation and the state budget deficit than intensifying investment. The study showed that improving efficiency in Ukraine was limited by the fact of reduced non-productive expenditure, but the impact of those expenditures that have been made has not changed. Therefore, the present government of Ukraine should continue to improve their policies in public investment, especially in planning, budgeting and controlling over their use. While calculating efficiency coefficient on the basis of inter-state comparison, one may observe a significant decrease in the efficiency of budget investment in 2013 - 2015. It should be noted that in Europe only two countries have a downward trend in efficiency growth: Ukraine and Greece. There is a large gap between Ukrainian efficiency coefficient and lowest coefficients in the EU, as the government of our country should further improve the scope of public investment to reach European levels. In particular, the efficiency coefficient in Ukraine is less than in the UK in 7 times, in Ireland – in 6 times, in Germany and Latvia – in 5 times, in Estonia – in 3.5 times, in Hungary – in 3 times.
Actual problems of modern communication in Ukrainian higher education
Scientific Bulletin of Eastern European National University after Lesya Ukrainka. - №2 (304). - Volume 2. - 2016 - P. 44-50.
Globalization and technology development have caused revolutionary changes in the global educational process. Unfortunately, Ukrainian universities use the old system of education based on simple transmission of information to students and checking its study. However, in today's job market such skills are no longer decisive, and employers are looking for graduates and their future employees with good ability to express their views in writing, speaking, effectively analyse information, work with various groups, and understand the competitive environment of global knowledge. Significant problems in financing universities, poor quality of higher education, the loss of competition present new challenges for the education community. In the process of investigation it was proved that no change is often attributed to deficiencies of communication between all stakeholders, including employers, teachers and students. It is shown that the teachers should play the leading role in the reform of higher education and carry a new level of communication both on vertical and horizontal levels.
Increased global and regional competition between universities requires a new approach to generating and implementing ideas in the educational and scientific space. In today's world the role of horizontal relations at the university, the role of leadership qualities by which individuals can effectively initiate and complete related projects significantly increases. At the end of 2015 on the initiative of the British Council in Ukraine, the Institute for Higher Education in Ukraine project "Development of leadership potential of universities Ukraine" was started, devoted to the formation teams with new level of management, the activity of which is directed to the full development and engagement of individual qualities and personal ability to work in a team. The paper analyzes potential of university teams based on psychological testing. It was determined that the share of psychological types of participants differ significantly comparing with according statistics in Ukraine and Europe, noted the positive and negative aspects of such a situation.
General government on the one hand regulates investment processes in the country, on the other hand is directly involved in these processes through public investment that requires maximizing the efficient use of scarce capital resources of the state. Based on international experience, as well as the national peculiarities of Ukraine, in the article a methodology is proposed for selecting investment projects, using a combination of two approaches: selection on ENPV and AHP methods. The priority of this methodology is the best consideration of the project effects under limited financing, as well as minimizing the risk of corruption. According to the methodology all investment projects are divided into three groups depending on the scope of investment: IT, innovation, transport infrastructure; environmental protection, energy saving; other projects. Selection of projects is subject to an optimization problem in which the objective function maximizes the benefits of problem projects, restrictions show that the cost of the project may not exceed the planned capital expenditures for the according period. Also it is taken into account special distribution of capital expenditures among project groups.
The increase the role of women in society is manifested in the expansion of their participation in social processes and business. Therefore, gender equality is an important component of the country's socio-economic development. But is there a correlation between gender and economic growth? This article will answer this question.
One of the major conditions of effective agriculture production is sufficient farm mechanization. However, the unstable economic situation in Ukraine, combined with bureaucratic problems, an unstable currency exchange rate, and sharply changed trade routes (which has caused major losses to a number of farms and traders working with the Custom Union) created significant obstacles for investing in machinery in Ukraine. It is especially topical for small and medium farms that usually function in poor economic conditions without any adequate access to the credit market. Consequently, Ukrainian agriculture producers often have an inadequate mechanization rate. As a result, the productivity of Ukrainian farms is significantly lower as compared to other countries that have similar natural conditions in terms of temperatures, precipitation and quality of agricultural lands. A no less important problem is the lack of awareness of small and medium farms, which may not realize the effect that investment has in agriculture machinery. Thus, in order to provide specific numbers for potential investors and prove the efficiency of this fund placement, an expected direct economic effect from machinery investment (as an increased profit from higher yield) was estimated. The first step was to define those types of agricultural machinery that have significant impact on the yield and productivity levels for each of the most important crop types: grain, oil crops, vegetables, fruits, etc. Then, an impact of additional investment in various machinery means on crops yield was estimated. Finally, based on fixed prices and a discount rate, an expected additional profit generated by newly purchased machinery on an average farm was estimated. The model proved especially high profitability of investment in such machinery as ploughs, fertilizers spreaders, harvesters, tractors, and machines for irrigation – most of them are paid off (on a land parcel with area around 2000 ha) in three years or less.
Evaluation of teacher’s effectiveness
A significant drop in the quality of higher education requires decisive action of all stakeholders. Universities are trying to conduct their activities under conditions of limited financial autonomy, which discourages them to limit the number of students. This leads to the fact that the effectiveness of teaching activity and its impact on the development of students is neglected not only by researchers, but also by the management of many universities. But now, universities that are not provided adequate training, lose students because of open borders and rather high student mobility.
Based on international experience it is suggested to pay more attention to teacher abilities, which directly affect the quality of education. First of all, universities should implement a mandatory survey to determine the quality of read courses, adequacy of delivered learning outcomes. All these steps should facilitate one goal - the formation of a new culture of the university, in which absolutely all the elements, all members of the educational process will be interested in improving the quality of higher education.
Formation the culture of higher education quality in Ukrainian universities
The authors reveal modern approaches to a new direction in the field of educational services: the formation the culture of higher education quality in Ukrainian universities; identify the main problems and threats for the formation and maintenance the culture of the educational process quality in universities; determine the recommendations for increasing the competitiveness of universities at the national and international level. The authors propose principles for the formation of a culture of higher education quality in Ukrainian universities. They include: changing mentality, when students should receive new high-level competencies, teachers constantly improve, management adequately respond to ongoing challenges; increasing communication, since most universities have almost no communication between different levels of management and staff; availability of information that requires clear and transparent vision of current problems and university development strategy; orientation to a process, when there is no "search for guilty"; the variability of power, which implies no fear of management; the clarity of functional responsibilities, which must resolve the issue of conflict of interest.
Today there is no state that can be sure in its energy security. States and its citizens are constantly faced with new threats. The layout of the article is as follows: Section 10.1 describes the introduction to the problem, highlighting the scope and agenda of the energy security study. Section 10.2 describes the concept of the energy security for Ukraine, current trends, and calculative assessments available in the world and considers the position of Ukraine in the World Energy Council (WEC) index in details. Section 10.3s provides expert scenario forecasting of the balance of electricity in Ukraine up to 2030 with regard to world megatrends and EU integration of the state. Comparison assessment of the international risk index for energy security of EU states and Ukraine is presented. Section 10.4 provides the VAR modeling and impulse analysis of Ukraine’s energy security to resource shocks. Those are followed by short conclusion and discussion. Results of this paper have a few policy implications for the energy strategies of Ukraine and the EU. First of all, it is a high time to review the energy policy in the aspect of the energy security adequate assessment and forecasting. It is also necessary to improve the Ukrainian legislation in the field of energy efficiency, in particular regarding the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in Ukraine, according to optimistic scenario of the development.
Modeling The Impact Of Public Debt On The Economic Growth Worldwide
The article deals with the analysis how the state debt influences economic growth of different countries of the world. The existing method of assessing the impact of public debt on the economic growth of developed countries has been improved, using the characteristic of debt stability and the application of Hansen econometric model in the pre- and post-crisis period. Using this model, we have investigated the existence of threshold values for various debt variables in developed and low-income countries. The analysis showed that the level of stable debt to GDP of 65-70% provides the highest economic growth throughout the investigated period. The threshold of the external debt to export ratio was found to be 191% for low-income countries, above which there is a slowdown in economic growth. Also, the article analysed the existence of threshold values for HIPC and non-HIPC countries separately. Applications of the regression analysis helped to reveal the state debt impact on the economic growth for the Ukrainian economy. The effect of debt on economic growth begins to fall after reaching the ratio of external debt to GDP level of 88%.
The role of technological change in increasing the inequality of income in the EU
Stimulation of economic growth in the EU countries in recent years has revealed rather serious problems with social satisfaction of the population. In particular, the level of income inequality has increased substantially in almost all countries of the European Union. This situation contradicts the assumptions of economic theory, according to which the development of technology should contribute to equalization of incomes. In this paper, the quantitative relationship between the level of technological development of the country and the level of inequality of incomes of its population is studied. It has been shown that central European and British countries have reached such a level of development and redistribution in the economy that a change in labour productivity can not significantly increase the inequality of incomes. Peripheral countries are affected by technological changes due to their significant dependence on larger economies and the lack of developed mechanisms for redistribution in the economy.
Еconomic Modeling of Energy Security: Simulation of Economic Processes (Case of Ukraine Gas System) (англ.мовою)
The paper considers issues of ensuring energy security in Ukraine. The first part of the paper is devoted to the analyses of the existing threats to energy security and the possibilities of guaranteeing this security. It was shown that the current level of energy security is unsatisfactory. It poses a real threat to the economic and national security of Ukraine. One of the most important elements of ensuring energy security in Ukraine is the production, import, and distribution of natural gas. The second part of the paper provides a detailed statistical analysis of the natural gas supply in Ukraine. Based on economicmathematical approaches, forecasts for state production, import and transit of gas for 2018-2020 are calculated. With the help of cluster analysis, the clusterization of regions of Ukraine by the energy security level was made in the third section. We received five clusters according to the levels of gas supply. It was concluded that the government should carefully and transparently approach the negotiation processes with other states interested in joint projects for the extraction and supply of oil and gas to Ukraine.
Trends of International Energy Security Risk Index in European Countries
The paper deals with the analysis and forecasting of energy security risk index for eleven European countries (the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, France, Germany, Poland, Spain, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, and Ukraine for the period 1992-2016). Nowadays, energy security plays an important role in guaranteeing the national, political and economic security of the country. A literature review of different approaches to defining energy security gave the possibility to consider the regression model of energy security risk index assessment, which takes into account the levels of economic, technical and technological, ecological, social and resource components. This step was proceeded with clusterization of the analysed countries in three groups according to Energy Security Risk Index. Based on this approach resource-mining countries (Denmark, Germany, Norway and the UK) were grouped in Cluster I, while Ukraine occupied the last Cluster III. The next division in five clusters supported the indicated allocation. Finally, we calculated the forecasts of energy security risk index based on data of 1992-2014. It allowed realizing the perspectives of energy market for the nearest future, particularly for Ukraine, which needs development of a new strategy of energy security
The impact of technological changes on income inequality: the EU states case study
In spite of economic growth, which led to the creation of millions of new jobs, income inequality has been growing sharply in most parts of the world. There is no doubt that inequality of income is the single greatest threat to social stability throughout the world. Development of technologies contributes to the increase of labour productivity, replacement of job positions by robots and automatic machines, which can further exacerbate social inequality. The aim of this paper is to determine how changes in technology affect the inequality of income in European countries. Based on the econometric apparatus, two periods are investigated: the first one, from 2006 to 2017 and the second one, from 2010 to 2017, that characterizes a new economic era after the global financial crisis. All countries were clustered, which made it possible to generalize their social and technological development. The novelty is that we considered the dichotomy and cointegration of two economic categories – income inequality and technological changes. Using a model that features biased heterogeneity, factor proportions, and labour market frictions, we obtained four quite sufficient results. (1) Central European countries and the UK have reached such a level of development and redistribution in the economy that a change in labour productivity is not significantly associated with any deepening of inequality in incomes. (2) Periphery countries, due to their significant dependence on larger economies and lack of the developed mechanism for redistribution in the economy, are affected by technological changes. (3) The more economically developed is a country, the less impact on income inequality can be initialized by technological change. (4) The deeper is income inequality in a country, the more it responds to technological changes, but the impact on inequality can be both positive and negative.
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2018; 3(198): - P. 54-65. - DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2018/198-3/7
This paper gives the possibility to analyze the application of renewable energy sources (RES) at different stages of their implementation to energy supply. Through the world experience we research the dynamics of energy consumption by its types; determine, what kinds of alternative sources are demanded most of all. In addition, we assess the efficiency of the application of RES in Ukraine. According to statistical and correlation analysis, it was proved that for Ukraine it is the most profitable to use biomass energy, while solar energy remains relatively expensive for our country. At the same time situation may change if costs for the solar panel will decrease in the future. It is shown that use of alternative energy sources decrease the energy intensity of GDP, while fossil resources increase this parameter. Unfortunately, Ukraine faces difficulties in attracting investments for development of RES as they are not so profitable at this time. It means that government should change its policy, increasing electricity prices to the European level, giving the chance for energy independence. In any case, in Ukraine, it will be necessary to increase the introduction of RES, as our country has only about 2% of RES in energy balance, while European countries in average have 17% and some of them have more than 60%.
Estimating the interrelation between energy security and macroeconomic factors in European countries.
This paper deals with the analysis of energy security in certain European countries. The investigation of different approaches to evaluation of the energy security parameter showed some drawbacks of their application in practice. This fact has led the authors to the idea to develop a completely new index of energy security that includes, inter alia, quite a traditional approach - based on the data about consumption, production, distribution, and allocation of energy resources - also paying attention to productivity and efficiency of using such resources. The first part of the paper discusses the advantages of a new parameter in comparison to the existing analogies. The next part concerns the estimation of four-panel regressions that describe the interrelation of main macroeconomic parameters with the new energy security index (NESI). They showed that the increase of GDP is positively correlated with NESI, and negatively - with CPI. Therefore, on the one hand, economic tools may improve energy security in Europe, and on the other, guaranteeing energy security leads to lower prices and bigger national output.
Influence of modern geopolitical challenges on state's economic security
Changes in the geopolitical situation in the world create risks and threats to the economy of the state as for its economic security. The paperconsiders possible risks caused by geopolitical confrontation between great powers and blocs of countries, economic preconditions for conflicts,struggle for resources and energy supply. It is shown that geopolitical challenges will have a significant impact on the economic component of thecountries of the world for a sufficiently long time, especially for Ukraine, which, due to its small economy, can not play a significant role in the international arena.
Challenges for Higher Education: The Case of Ukraine (англ. мовою)
In September 2014, a new Higher Education Act, which significantly expanded the autonomy of the university and provided a real opportunity for the unification of Ukrainian and European educational space, was passed in Ukraine. New rules of work should improve the quality of education and make national universities competitive worldwide. At the same time, the educational institutions face numerous problems of transition, which should be solved as soon as possible. The issues that require a coordinated approach for the majority of higher education universities are analyzed within the paper.
Analysis of Energy Security Provision in the European Countries
In this paper, different approaches to understanding the concept of “energy security” were considered through the prism of factors that affect its level and methods of its evaluation. An assessment of the energy security level was conducted based on the Shannon-Wiener index for 15 countries in Europe (Austria, Great Britain, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Norway, Poland, Ukraine, Switzerland, and Sweden) in the period 1985–2014. The impact of fuel prices, in particular, oil and natural gas, on the level of energy security in these countries have been researched. The grouping of these countries into clusters was carried out on the basis of the calculated value of the Shannon-Wiener index. As the structure of energy consumption in Austria, Greece, Norway, and Poland is diverse, that is, they consume different sources of energy (oil, natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power plants, renewable energy) in a more even way than those that have fallen into other clusters. In addition, the prediction of the level of energy security (the Shannon-Wiener index) was calculated for Ukraine by classical forecasting methods, the Holt-Winters method, using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, simple linear regression, and using trend lines. An absolute majority of forecasts have shown that Ukraine’s energy security level will slightly increase from its current level in 2015–2017. It says there is no reason to talk about sufficient improvement of the diversification of resource supply.
Geopolitical Climate of Black Sea Region
In: Emerging Importance of Wider Black Sea Area Security. – Lucian Blaga Univeristy of Sibiu, June, 2018. – PP. 107-117.
Paper deals with the analysis of different current threats in the Black Sea region (BSR). At present, countries are inclined to apply protectionist measures to defend their own markets, which leads to a restriction of free trade and hence to a vigour struggle for certain resources. One of the most important resources is energy, but it can be supplied in different forms. The paper analyses four sources of energy, including coal, oil, gas and renewable energy. It is proved that the type of energy used plays an important role in detecting geopolitical influence. It is investigated how different European countries are dependent on Russia’s supply and how this level is interrelated with the level of happiness in these states. The negative relation is detected, revealing new threats to the BSR, when a high dependence on energy resources from Russia exists. It was shown that relative prices for resources are being diminished comparing to stock markets. Therefore, in the nearest future, the attempts will be made to form energy superpowers, which, by controlling energy sources, will try to raise prices in the market and to monopolize it as the next step. The EU and the BSR, in particular, should be ready for such threats, providing common energy policy.
An entrepreneur is no longer the king of his business (on Russian).
The main task of the head of modern business is the creation of effective management under permanent change of staff, the correct distribution of outsourcing, the preparation of enterprises for subsequent sale.
Analysis of trade between the EU and Ukraine with a gravity model
In this work a gravitation model was developed and analyzed for five European countries that are at different levels of development (Finland, Baltic States and Ukraine). The study showed that the presence of a common currency would increase exports by about one-fifth. Due to the development of transport infrastructure, it is possible to significantly increase the volume of trade in Europe, especially with the attraction of Eastern European countries.
Economic modeling of the GDP gap in Ukraine and worldwide
The concept of output gap plays an important role in traditional macroeconomic theory, applied research and monetary policy. The paper reveals analyses of the potential economic development in Ukraine and in some countries of the world under limited information. Thus, the practical goal is to consider the best modelling approach for the possibility to regulate GDP in Ukraine, as it has been experienced in other countries of the world. The research is realized with the help of economic-mathematical modelling of GDP gap based on the analysis of the production function, statistical methods of distinguishing the trend component, one-dimensional filtration, multidimensional filtration. Practical importance of the paper includes implementation of methods for estimating potential GDP and the GDP gap, in particular, the authors proposed to use an approach based on the production function for the potential growth of European countries modelling. The model reveals that for the Eurozone countries, in the short term, it is not expected that the economy will reach its potential level. The negative forecast is explained by the fact that the Eurozone has been severely affected by the debt crisis. There has been a significant increase in the gap in production volumes, which in turn led to deflation. Despite the uncertainty in the assessment of potential GDP and GDP gap for Ukraine the multidimensional method provided the best modelling result. Thus, it is disclosed that Ukraine is under the growing wave of the business cycle, but not in the synergy with the EU dynamics.
Gravity model analysis of globalization process in transition economies
The globalization process develops itself differently for each transition country. Likewise, implementation of reforms and their impacts on trade relations show variety among countries. The article focuses on five countries (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine). It considers how the factors (the size of the economy, the ratio of the price index of the countries, common borders on the sea or on land, distance between the states and the existence of common currency) have affected the export trade volume with trading partners during 1996-2017. The main methodology of the article is formed around the gravity model, which suggests that trade relations between countries can be explained by their economic size and the distance between states’ financial centres. The findings show that such factors still play a significant role, but logistic problems became much weaker during the last years. It is necessary to note the influence of the Industry 4.0, which intensifies the service of the economy and introduces new adjustments to the allegedly established theoretical dependencies in trade and economic development of the state. The research has shown that countries that are close to each other have fewer opportunities for developing export potential. At the same time, the presence of a common currency allows states increase exports by about one-fifth. At present, changes in domestic prices in countries do not play a significant role in exports, same as the ratio of the economy size. Therefore, taking into account the development of transport infrastructure, it is possible to increase significantly the exports in Europe, especially with the involvement of Eastern Europe.
The role of European integration in ensuring economic security
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2019; 2(203): 53-59. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2019/203-2/7.
The globalization process develops itself differently for each transition country. Likewise, implementation of reforms and their impacts on trade relations show variety among countries. The article focuses on five countries (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine). It considers how the factors (the size of the economy, the ratio of the price index of the countries, common borders on the sea or on land, distance between the states and the existence of common currency) have affected the export trade volume with trading partners during 1996-2017. The main methodology of the article is formed around the gravity model, which suggests that trade relations between countries can be explained by their economic size and the distance between states’ financial centres. The findings show that such factors still play a significant role, but logistic problems became much weaker during the last years. It is necessary to note the influence of the Industry 4.0, which intensifies the service of the economy and introduces new adjustments to the allegedly established theoretical dependencies in trade and economic development of the state. The research has shown that countries that are close to each other have fewer opportunities for developing export potential. At the same time, the presence of a common currency allows states increase exports by about one-fifth. At present, changes in domestic prices in countries do not play a significant role in exports, same as the ratio of the economy size. Therefore, taking into account the development of transport infrastructure, it is possible to increase significantly the exports in Europe, especially with the involvement of Eastern Europe.
Main goals and factors of influence. Macro and microeconomics studies
The globalization process develops itself differently for each transition country. Likewise, implementation of reforms and their impacts on trade relations show variety among countries. The article focuses on five countries (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine). It considers how the factors (the size of the economy, the ratio of the price index of the countries, common borders on the sea or on land, distance between the states and the existence of common currency) have affected the export trade volume with trading partners during 1996-2017. The main methodology of the article is formed around the gravity model, which suggests that trade relations between countries can be explained by their economic size and the distance between states’ financial centres. The findings show that such factors still play a significant role, but logistic problems became much weaker during the last years. It is necessary to note the influence of the Industry 4.0, which intensifies the service of the economy and introduces new adjustments to the allegedly established theoretical dependencies in trade and economic development of the state. The research has shown that countries that are close to each other have fewer opportunities for developing export potential. At the same time, the presence of a common currency allows states increase exports by about one-fifth. At present, changes in domestic prices in countries do not play a significant role in exports, same as the ratio of the economy size. Therefore, taking into account the development of transport infrastructure, it is possible to increase significantly the exports in Europe, especially with the involvement of Eastern Europe.
Testing the fruitfulness of the institutional environment for the development of innovative-entrepreneurial Universities in Ukraine
Strengthening the integration of higher education, research, and innovation is a crucial requirement of time. The entrepreneurial university today is considered and analyzed as a promising model for their combination. The educational and scientific systems of many countries are faced with the task of converging all vertices of the “knowledge triangle.” The problem of Ukrainian educational and scientific system is a necessity to implement the concept of formation of the innovation and entrepreneurial model of a modern university, which will enable the effective implementation of administrative reforms in this field. The article aims to analyze the impact of innovative environmental factors on the development of entrepreneurial universities in Ukraine, based on correlation and panel regression analysis. The method of quantitative analysis (panel regression) is used to formulate the key results of the article. The results show that the growth of government expenditures by 1% leads to an increase in the Global Innovation Index by 0.375 in 4 years. Also, every additional 1% of people working with new technologies increases the level of Global Innovation Index by 0.75 annually. Despite European trends, Ukrainian educational environment does not contribute to the development of innovation and entrepreneurial universities (the education expenditures are ineffective). The research provides a vector for understanding the implementation of the most effective strategies of promising innovation and investment development of education and science in Ukrainian universities, considering their existing potential and contemporary world trends of development.
Stavytskyy А., Kharlamova G., Stoica E.A.
The Analysis of the Digital Economy and Society Index in the EU
The paper analyzes the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), which characterizes the development of digital economy. Based on the data of 28 European countries for 2013–2018, using the panel regression, we studied the influence of the consumption index growth by the purchasing power parity and unemployment among the active population on the structural units of DESI. It is shown that a 1% increase in the consumption index results in about 0.2 increase in the DESI, and an increase in unemployment by 1% leads to about 0.2 DESI decline. It is also shown that the 98% value of DESI is actually determined by its previous trends, and therefore it is impossible to increase this index rapidly. Some reflections and conclusions are made on the perspective of the developing states, i.e., Ukraine, that is not yet assessed in DESI ranking.
Stavytskyy A.V., Kozub M.B.
Modeling of income inequality in the European Union countries
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2019; 4(205): 34-40. https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2019/205-4/5.
The article describes the current tendencies of the development of income differentiation processes in the countries of the European Union during the last 10 years. According to the analysis of the impact of income inequality on the economy of the countries, there is an inverse relationship between the growth of the gap between the income of different groups of people and the economic development. In order to confirm this conclusion and calculate the real index of income inequality, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model has been developed. The authors analysed three macroeconomics objects (household, firm, government), relationships between them and made their own model of eight equations. After that, the index of income inequality of all 27 current members of the European Union has been calculated for the last 10 years. The result shows in the general negative tendency. That is why it is important to choose the right strategic direction for the future development of the country. This DSGE model is a universal model and can be applied to other regions of the world after calibration of the parameters. The improvement of the model is about its expansion by adding other sources of income to get more accurate results. As a conclusion of the article, there was analysed the main directions of reforming the European economy in order to achieve sustainable development.
A. Roskladka, N. Roskladka, A. Karpuk, A.Stavytskyy, G. Kharlamova
The data science tools for research of emigration processes in Ukraine
Problems and Perspectives in Management. 2020. Volume 18, Issue #1, pp. 70-81. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.18(1).2020.07
The process of world globalization, labor, and academic mobility, the visa-free regime with the EU countries have caused a significant revival of migration processes in Ukraine. However, there is still the research gap in the most informative, and, at the same time, accurate method of the assessment and forecasting of the migration flows. Thus, the object of research is migration processes (mostly emphasizing the emigration flows). The motives, causes of emigration processes, and their relationship with the economic state were analyzed. The impact factors of external labor migration on the economy of the host countries were revealed, particularly the negative and positive impacts of emigration on the socio-economic situation in Ukraine and the migration attitude of Ukrainians were assessed.
The main result of study is further development of the econometric model for forecasting the number of emigrants from Ukraine to other countries in the nearest future. The model considers the factors of minimum wage lavel in Ukraine, the number of open vacancies in the countries of Eastern Europe, and the level of competition for jobs. According to the results of forecasting based on Maple computer algebra system and Microsoft Power BI analytical platform, by the end of 2019, the number of emigrants from Ukraine supposed to be the largest in the last four years and to reach the estimates in the range from 2,444 to 2,550 million people, which may indicate a new third wave of emigration processes.
A. Sokolovska, T. Zatonatska, A. Stavytskyy, O.Lyulyov, V. Giedraitis
The Impact of Globalization and International Tax Competition on Tax Policies
Research in World Economy. 2020, Vol. 11, No. 4 (Special Issue). Doi: https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v11n4p1. URL: http://www.sciedupress.com/journal/index.php/rwe/article/view/18664
The aim of the paper is to determine to what extent the strengthening of the transparency of the Ukrainian economy and its incorporation in international tax competition affects the tax policy of the country and the peculiarities of its tax system. In the study, the logical analysis of the direct and inverse relationship of changes in taxation with such manifestations of globalization, as the movement of capital and labor resources from Ukraine and to the country, is combined with an empirical (regression) analysis of the relationship between globalization and the main characteristics of the Ukrainian tax system. It is proved that the increase of incorporation of Ukraine in globalization processes, despite the reduction of taxes on the main factors of production, is accompanied by an increase in the general level of tax burden on the economy (tax rate). The above mentioned is a consequence of increase of other taxes, including excise, caused both by internal needs of Ukraine (conducting the policy of fiscal consolidation caused by large public debt, and increasing defense expenditures) and its international obligations (EU Association Agreement). The tax system in Ukraine is much stronger (about 25%) influenced by the general index of globalization in comparison with its subindex characterizing the economic component of globalization. Obviously, this is owing to the greater influence on taxation in Ukraine of other components of globalization such as political and social one. The results show that the growth of the globalization index is accompanied by rather expected effects such as reduction of corporate profit tax rates and personal income tax, transferring the tax burden from capital to labor and, to a greater extent, on consumption, improving business conditions in the context of tax payments, and specific increase in the general level of tax burden on the economy, significant losses of the state that is not so much from the reduction of tax rates as from the erosion of the tax base on income, which is the result of a combination of negative effects of external and internal factors; the threat of escalating the policy of low tax rates. It is recommended to the Ukrainian Government to focus increasingly on the tax evolution trends in post-socialist EU countries to strengthen Ukraine`s position in tax competition with this group of countries.
A. Stavytskyy, G. Kharlamova, V. Giedraitis, V. Osetskyi, V. Kulish
Can key interest rates decrease output gaps? (англ. мовою)
Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(3), 205-218. doi:10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.16, URL: https://businessperspectives.org/journals/investment-management-and-financial-innovations/issue-360/can-key-interest-rates-decrease-output-gaps
The difference in the GDP levels is crucial for the macroeconomic forecasting to develop adequate and supportive fiscal and monetary policies. Most mismeasurements under current geoeconomics challenges can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and the overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. The research aims to consider the GDP gap’s effectiveness for the possible forecasting of the monetary policy, particularly the central bank’s interest rate. The study uses quantitative methods, particularly VAR modeling. The VAR model is chosen as a proven useful tool for describing the dynamic behavior of economic time series and forecasting. The data sample is chosen as Eurozone, the United States, and Japan. The similarity is detected on output gaps implementation in the considered states; however, the variety in the responses to the financial crisis is revealed. This difference is due to the different sensitivity of economies on the impact of monetary instruments. In particular, the Japanese economy has a relatively low level of sensitivity to changes in monetary instruments. In terms of the reactions of central banks to the current economic crisis caused by COVID-19, then due to the global lockdown and the incredible decline in economic activity, almost all countries are in a situation of negative GDP gap according the paper’s approach. However, the measures to mitigate it will vary in different states.
G. Kharlamova, A. Stavytskyy
The Gender Issue in Entrepreneurship Activity: the Current Perception of Entrepreneurs
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2020; 3(210): 42-52. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2020/210-3/6
Today, the issue of gender and equal opportunities for women and men is raised more and more often. That is despite the fact that in developed countries there are very massive feminization trends. Нowever, the development of new technologies, the transition to online life brings gender issues to the fore in the context of new geoeconomic challenges, such as the development of creative industries, digitalization, rising unemployment, growing social and economic inequality. Looking to the future is impossible without understanding the impact of the past. This paper examines three countries, principle economic partners of Ukraine, which had a socialist past, although formed in different socio-cultural vectors, and those that show different rates of development and use different economic models. The working hypothesisis as follows: whether gender entrepreneurship differs in these countries. The database is taken from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring (GEM) and investigated using statistical and econometric methods. The results showed that with the maximum similarity of perceptions of entrepreneurs in analyzed countries, the gender difference still exists in the direction of greater entrepreneurial activity of women in the country, which shows higher economic performance today. It should be noted that the main problem and limitation of this study is the source of data, which is based on monitoring, which does not cover all countries of the world, so in particular it does not contain data on Ukraine. In addition, from the point of view of the input data collected by GEM, we have almost equal proportions of surveyed men and women, both in general and those engaged in entrepreneurial activities. But this is not fully representative. Because demographic composition in these countries differs. It is also worth noting that the GEM data is a survey conducted by a trusted institution in the country, which is not fully representative for cross-country comparison.
A. Stavytskyy, G Kharlamova, M.Naumova
Sokolov, O., Zholtkevych, G., Yakovyna, V., Tarasich, Yu., Kharchenko, V., Kobets,
V., Burov, O., Semerikov, S., Kravtsov, H (Eds.): ICT in Education, Research, and
Industrial Applications. Proc. 16th Int. Conf. ICTERI 2020. Volume II: Workshops. Kharkiv, Ukraine, October 6-10, 2020, CEUR-WS.org, online. р.313-328. http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2732/
Decision making in the economy demands tools to find the most effective, cost-affordable, and optimal solutions. Besides, there is a high necessity to have possible solutions not for tactic needs but for strategic as well. Business and economic analysts of all levels of economic management are eager to put up the user-friendly software, apps, or solutions to support their analytic and forecasting attempts. In the epoch of the claimed Industry 4.0, rapid digitization and on-line of recent quarantine events, the information systems, and any computer support is the best possibility and treasure. This paper is devoted to the idea of possible computer support for the analysis and forecasting of economic dynamics. Particular attention is paid to the time series modelling and detecting of its cyclic component. The majority of economic time series have the seasonality or other cycling inside of its dynamics, that could dramatically pervert the linear trend forecast or any other determinate direction of the trend. The proposed information system is quite user-friendly but the low error way provides a potential user with the tool of cyclic component forecasting. The methodology is grounded in the Assimakopouloscyclicity filter. The case of Denmark's GDP quarterly since 1995is presented to test and confirm the system's effectiveness in acquiring knowledge about the dynamics of the economic system. The sufficient accuracy of the implemented forecasting methods is presented.
A. Roskladka, N. Roskladka, G. Kharlamova, A. Stavytskyy
Sokolov, O., Zholtkevych, G., Yakovyna, V., Tarasich, Yu., Kharchenko, V., Kobets, V., Burov, O., Semerikov, S., Kravtsov, H (Eds.): ICT in Education, Research, and
Industrial Applications. Proc. 16th Int. Conf. ICTERI 2020. Volume II: Workshops. Kharkiv, Ukraine, October 6-10, 2020, CEUR-WS.org, online. р.313-328. http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2732/
The article contains a study of the principles of student's educational trajectory formation by using modern technologies in data analysis. There is a mandatory requirement to have the selective component (optional to a student) among the curriculum educational components. This rule is legislated in the laws «On Education» and «On Higher Education» of Ukraine as well as in the normative documents on accreditation of educational programs, defined by the Standards and recommendations on quality assurance in the European Space of Higher Education (ESG) and the National Agency for Quality Assurance of Higher Education. However, adherence to the principles of the individual educational trajectory formation is mostly formal and is reduced to offering students a non-coherent list of courses. On the one hand, this leads to the disorientation of a student, who cannot see the systemic perspective of his future profession in the initial list of study courses, and therefore cannot consciously choose the optimal set of optional courses. On the other hand, the unknown choice of courses by students leads to situational management of the educational process at the HEI. A large number of courses create significant difficulties in managing the selection process. To analyse the process of individual educational trajectory formation, the authors propose to use methods of data association and, in particular, the apriori algorithm for the formation of associative rules. The procedure of popular sets of elective courses formation, the configuration of associative rules of educational courses choice is studied. The characteristics of these rules quality are calculated. The example of the procedure implementation in analytical platform Deductor Studio is considered.
A. Stavytskyy, M.Kozub
Ekonomika, 99(2), pp. 6-19. doi: 10.15388/Ekon.2020.2.1.
The article describes the features of the processes of economic convergence in the countries of Eastern Europe for the last 10 years. The analysis of β- and σ-convergence was carried out based on a system of macroeconomic indicators with 10 key parameters. The calculation of the direction and speed of convergence was performed using the econometric instruments in the region as a whole and pairwise analysis of the β-convergence index for all analyzed countries. The obtained results allowed to conclude the inequity development of Eastern European countries and the lack of a stable trend towards convergence of macroeconomic indicators. The resulting model is universal and can be applied to other world regions or to determine the processes of convergence of another system of macroeconomic indicators and choose main directions of reforming to bring national economies closer and achieve stronger external relations.
A. Stavytskyy, V.Taraba
Analyzing performance of technical analysis on stock markets
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2020; 4(211): 53-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2020/211-4/5
The article analyzes the profitability of technical analysis methods for the seven stock indices during the last ten years. According to the analysis, the profitability of technical analysis has increased recently due to changes in market conditions. However, the efficiency of technical analysis methods was much lower during 2010-2018. The analysis showed that technical analysis methods demonstrated best results on the Chinese, Indian, and Hong Kong stock indices, the worst – on the American, European, and Japanese stock indices. However, the stability of these methods is quite low: their profitability varies greatly with the change of the sample. The issue of aggregation of technical analysis signals and ARIMA-model signals is also considered in this paper. The optimal parameters for the technical analysis methods were selected by testing on historical data; optimal ARIMA models were selected for each index. For 3 out of 7 indices the optimal model is WN (white noise). Most technical analysis methods showed poor results on the American (S&P 500) and European (Euronext 100) stock indices (except for the last two years). The results can be used to develop trading strategies.
Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G., Giedraitis, V., Cheberyako, O., & Nikytenko, D
Gender question: Econometric answer.
There has been an increased interest in the studies on female entrepreneurship due to the changing sociocultural conditions at the global markets. Despite this trend, there is still a lack of understanding about the female entrepreneurs' role in the internationalization processes of firms and states. The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of gender differences globally. The critical review of available literature and international reports on the topic revealed the research gap in the application of applied econometrics methods for the gender equality study. Noticing the critical shortage of data on the male/female differences in the economy and entrepreneurship we take Global Gender Gap index as the depictive indicator. The research rises six main questions that test the dependence of gender equality on the territorial affiliation of the country, the level of economic development of the country (income and GDP per capita), the unemployment rate in the country, the level of economy’s shadowing, the educational level in the country and supporting of the research, mainly the involvement of women in science. The panel regressions show that in general the Global Gender Gap Index has been growing and will grow due to the internal factors. This means that in the long run, there are no incentives for most countries to accelerate its development. The only exception to this rule are African countries.
Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G., Chernyak O.
Modelling of Population Consumption in Conditions of Instability
The analysis of consumption plays an important role in both macroeconomic theory and empirical research. The matter of macroeconomic instability is one of the main points in modern macroeconomics. The tasks of the paper are: to reveal the essence of the population consumption as an economic category; to assess consumer attitudes in different countries, to determine the number of factors that affect the level of consumption and its structural elements under instability; and to construct the models of population consumption patterns. The analysis of the changes in consumer attitudes over the world during the period of instability was conducted. We observed the dynamics and structure of household consumption spending in the United States, Canada, Japan, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. It has been resolved that over the past few years the global trend has improved, which is characterized by an increase in the consumer confidence index for most countries. We made a focus on the post-crisis period only for Ukraine, not considering the war period due to missed data. Nevertheless, we found out that the Consumer Confidence Index in Ukraine has dropped sharply over the past two years. Ukrainians still negatively assess the economic trend due to the difficult macroeconomic situation in the country. We built the models of the dependence of the consumption growth rate on the permanent and temporary incomes growth rate, the rate of inflation and the percentage deviation from the long-term equilibrium in the period of instability based on the samples for the United States, Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation and European countries.
Kharlamova, G., Stavytskyy, A., Naumova M.
Gender Matters For The Entrepreneurial Activity: Case Of European States
Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 287-302, December.URL: https://ideas.repec.org/a/blg/journl/v15y2020i3p287-302.html
The gender inequality is the hot topic for most countries in the world. However, sometimes the talks about the risks and threats are more dramatic than the reality is. The paper aims to test the gender gap in the selected states and to consider the hypothesis that gender matters in entrepreneurial activity. The methodology of the regression and statistical analyses is proposed to access the main hypothesis and to trace the dynamics of the gender indexes and ranks. The preliminary results show that gender affects the level of entrepreneurial activity; besides government support programs and socio-cultural factors have a significant impact as well. The valid results for all states represented positive correlation and dependence between Entrepreneurial Motivation for TEA and Female/Male ratio for all analysed states. We can conclude that the change in the ratio of women and men engaged in entrepreneurial activity in the state (i.e. Poland) will affect the level of business innovation. For example, when the gender structure of entrepreneurs in Poland changes towards the number of women compared to men, the level of innovation of products and services will increase, or vice versa.
Stavytskyy A., Sachko V.
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2020; 5(211). P. 33-43. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2020/212-5/5
The article considers the impact of human development on changes and transformations in economics and on the general development of the state for the countries of the European Union and Ukraine in the period from 1990 to 2018, as well as ways of its modeling using statistical and econometric methods. The analysis of the factors influencing the development of human capital made it possible to draw a conclusion about the direct dependence of changes in the economic and social spheres and the level of quality of life of the population. Innovative universities, namely University 4.0, also in turn play a significant role in shaping the new modern knowledge economy and the development of the state as a whole, influencing society through cognitive technologies. To determine the results, time series models and multiple and panel regression models were developed based on the data of the Human Development Index and other socio-economic indicators that determine the financial stability of the state and the level of its security and welfare. The obtained models were tested for adequacy, significance of coefficients, stability and possibility of their use in practice in order to determine the most optimal of them. After conducting the necessary tests and calculating the error of RMSPE, the best of all constructed and analyzed models was the Holt-Winters model. It is universal and can be used to further forecast the economic, social and demographic indicators of other regions of the world with possible adjustments of the main parameters and coefficients to obtain the most accurate results and use this model in practice. The study concluded with an analysis of the main areas of reform and recovery of the Ukrainian economy and the spheres of education and health care to achieve social progress in the country and increase its level of development.
A. Stavytskyy, K. Molokanova
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2020; 6(213). P. 20-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2020/213-6/3
The article examines the concept of quality of life and reviews the history of its development in the scientific literature. It is explained why estimation of country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life can't be done only by evaluation of GDP per capita and other dimensions have to be included such as those, which influence material well-being (level of income, living conditions, basic expenses rate in total consumption, income inequality, etc.) and other areas of well-being (such as quality of education, healthcare, ecology, social equality). Dimensions that have to be included while estimating the level of quality of life have been defined by the most influential works in both the theoretical development of the concept and its practical application. Tendencies of changes of life-quality in European countries during 2008 – 2019 have been described. The development of the most important indicators that have an impact on life-quality has also been examined. The article analyses the features of methodology and application of dynamic stochastic models of general equilibrium (DSGE-models). DSGE-model has been built based on analysis of quality of life. Evaluation of the model made it possible to determine the most influential factors in terms of quality of life, estimate the level of quality of life in Ukraine and European countries and formulate general recommendations based on the country's weaknesses. The model can be used for analysis of life-quality for other countries as long as data of the indicators correspond with the values given by statistic services of the country. In case of necessity, the system of indicators used for estimation of the quality of life can be broadened or constricted.
Andriy Stavytskyy, Ganna Kharlamova, Olena Komendant, Jarosław Andrzejczak, Joanna Nakonieczny
Energies 2021, 14(12), 3621. URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/12/3621/pdf. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14123621
Energy issue stays a top priority for the national security of most countries. Despite numerous international forums, large-scale geoeconomic research, international and national projects, and the development of appropriate strategies, the issue of energy security assessment and understanding of its terminology is not a universal practice. The presented study has an ambitious goal to develop a methodology that can provide an objective picture of the energy sector on an international scale with cross-country comparisons under the influence of modern megatrends. Based on 29 indicators, according to the World Bank data since 1991, the energy security index is calculated for the set of world states with further analysis of the cluster dynamics of their common trends in energy security. The index showed its objectivity and resistance to existing shocks in geoeconomic dynamics. An important feature of the proposed index is the possibility to compare the energy security index with 1. This value is, in fact, a European average: if a country has an energy security index greater than 1, it means that its energy level is currently better than the European average, and if it is lower than 1, it means that it is inferior to the level of energy security currently achieved on average in Europe. The concept of calculating the index of energy security of the state is based on a unified comparison of all countries, which allows us to move away from the use of signaling approaches and eliminate subjectivity in calculations, as well as provide a basis for dynamic comparison of energy security. The vital aspect of the index is that it takes into account changes in the energy paradigm, the transition to alternative energy sources, and the comprehension of the role of energy efficiency, in particular, of fossil fuels. The study identifies clusters of countries that have consistent similarities in energy security, which can usually be of practical interest in developing energy strategies and understanding the similarity of geoeconomic interests of these states. Thus, this article contributes not only to the development of scientific approaches to the assessment of energy issues, in particular, through the methodological development of a representative index, but also through the presentation of statistically sound results for further effective management decisions at the state level.
Yulia Petlenko, Andriy Stavytskyy, Ganna Kharlamova
Problems and Perspectives in Management. Volume 19. 2021, Issue #3, pp. 396-407. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.19(3).2021.32
The COVID-19 has put higher education institutions in a new situation and identified bottlenecks in the financial structure of institutions and education systems in general. However, for Ukrainian universities, this situation can be seen as an opportunity to achieve financial autonomy. This study is devoted to the consideration of a possible tool for the financial autonomy of Ukrainian classical universities, most of which are state-funded. The paper considers the methodology of a possible tool for the accumulation of external financing – the endowment fund. The case analysis and analytical consideration of world practice are applied. As a result, a model for financing the university in its transition to the innovation and entrepreneurship model is proposed as the chain “endowment fund – development of start-ups”. This example can become the basis of the road map for other national HEIs, as well as the practice of wider use in the field of higher education. However, despite most of the national classical universities have declared a course to an innovative development, which further raised the necessity of external funding, top management and general economic situation require more attention. As this transition to a new model of the university is taking place along with the financial stabilization and under economic and social upheavals, the formation of a new culture of online communication is necessary. Thus, the proposed model is the practical guideline of possible decisions but mostly the start-point for further discussion and research.
Mara, D., Nate S., .Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G.
Energies 2022, 15, 658. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/en15020658
The term “energy security” is used almost everywhere in economic and political discussions related to energy supply. However, different authors use different meanings to express the concept of energy security. Quite often, this term is used to give more importance or relevance to issues that are often not inherently related to energy security. Attempts to define the essence of the concept of “energy security” have hitherto not been systematic and are characterized by a variety of approaches, and some insufficient justification especially in the aspect of state national security is notable. Our contribution to the discourse development is the consideration of energy security as part of internationally recognized indices that are developed to assess the temperature of world security. A regression modeling approach to test the crucial factors of social‐economic development that impact the energy security indicators is presented. The literature analysis and review of the world’s existing national security indices show that the link between energy security and national security is in fact hardly considered. Mostly, energy security is considered in the dichotomy concerning economic security at the international, as well as national levels. The calculative regression modeling revealed that the significant correlation of economic and energy security is just for the U.S.A., the rest of the analyzed countires display the weak or non‐significant correlations of the indices of economic/energy/security threats. That pushes the discussion on whether energy security is indeed so impactful a factor for geo‐policy and geo‐economy, or whether it is mostly the well‐rolled media‐supported megatrend. However, the present study notes a great shortage of long‐ term cross‐state indices to reflect energy, economic, and national security to allow for valuable modeling.
Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G., Fedorenko I.
Studies in Business and Economics, vol.16, no.3, 2021, pp.87-108. https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2021-0047
In today's globalized world, the challenge of the state economic security ensuring is particularly relevant as a priority for the national interests protection from various threats. The analyses of the experience of the European Union and other countries revealed that national economic security ensuring plays a crucial role in securing for the state its geostrategic significance and potential. The article provides a critical analysis of modern threats and risks to economic security from the geostrategic perspective. The paper develops the methodology of the economic security index calculating based on a unified comparison of parameters of economic and social development of all countries, which allowed to move away from signaling approaches and eliminated subjectivity in assessments and following policy recommendations. In contrast to existing methods, the authors’ approach uses geopolitical factors. This tactic allowed taking into account the directions of change in the world and identifying external threats and risks to state economic security. The analysis and comparison of the index of economic security of European countries based on the offered concept are carried out. The countries are clustered based on the economic security index.
Nate, S., Grecu, V., Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G.
Sustainability. 2022, 14, 7985. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14137985
Existing definitions of entrepreneurship highlight the functional role of entrepreneurs, emphasizing their responsibilities for coordination, allocating resources, making decisions, supplying capital, innovation, and bearing uncertainty. This research analyzes the impact that external funding and supportive soft-skills mechanisms such as mentorship, advice, and networking with experienced entrepreneurs have on transforming the entrepreneurial attitude of new entrepreneurs. In measuring attitudes regarding entrepreneurial success, a series of variables specific to the nature of the analyzed entrepreneurial ecosystem are revealed and adapted, starting from psychological research. This approach is implemented to evaluate the self-perception of efficacy and transformation of entrepreneurs after initiating their companies. The survey of Romanian new entrepreneurs is considered as the database. The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data set is used to consider entrepreneurial motives and impacts at the macrolevel. The correlation analysis, statistical tests, and ANOVA helped to reveal the differences in attitudes to mentorship and similar indicators in the Romanian business environment. The novelty of the research is seen in the consideration of field cases and a global monitoring data set through the prism of ground mathematical methods. The focus on boosting new entrepreneurs with a mixture of finance and soft skills support simultaneously addresses a research gap that is slightly closed by this research. The study showed that the mentoring program for new entrepreneurs increased their self-confidence, especially for young people, taught them how to run a company without outside interference, and significantly transformed the mentality of the participants in the experiment. Thus, the policy of supporting new entrepreneurs not only financially, but also in skills, has good prospects and needs to be intensified.
Stavytskyy, A.
Europa: serve ripensare al concetto di sicurezza energetica
Nel febbraio 2022, in Europa è scoppiato il più grande conflitto militare dalla seconda guerra mondiale. Molte le ragioni che ne spiegano la genesi: un governo autocratico in Russia, la mentalità imperiale della popolazione russa, la propaganda informativa, ragioni di carattere storico. A queste, però, ne va aggiunta un’altra che assume una rilevanza particolare: l’energia, pietra angolare attorno a cui ruotano molti interessi economici e la stessa sicurezza dell’Europa.
Kharlamova, G., Roskladka, A., Roskladka, N., Stavytskyy, A., Zabaldina Yu.
Cluster Analysis of Ukrainian Regions Regarding the Level of Investment Attractiveness in Tourism
The article contains a description of the process and results of the implementation of the k-means algorithm in the analytical platform Loginom for the problem of clustering the regions of Ukraine by the level of investment attractiveness in the field of tourism. The selection of tourism clusters and their ranking is a difficult task in the field of data analysis, as there is no single consolidated indicator of investment attractiveness. The conclusion about the affiliation of a particular region to one of the tourist clusters is determined by a set of indicators of the volume of tourist services for different types of economic activity in the field of tourism. The Loginom system has powerful tools for cluster analysis using EM-Clustering, k-means, g-means and others. The tools of statistical and visual analysis of the obtained results deserve special attention: Table, Statistics, Chart, OLAP-Cube, Cluster Profiles. Clustering has made it possible to identify groups of regions that are actively developing the tourism industry (primarily Kyiv city and Odesa region) and are currently formed for tourism investors. Equally important is the selection of problem regions that have a low level of attractiveness for domestic and foreign tourism. It is noted that Ukraine has a huge potential for the development of the tourism industry. The regions that, according to the results of the cluster analysis, are in the problem group have “world-class tourist pearls”. The Government of Ukraine and local authorities should pay attention to the insufficient level of development of the tourism industry, provide comprehensive support to the regions that are in the problem cluster, and thus increase their level of investment attractiveness.
Kharlamova, G., Stavytskyy, A., Komendant, O.
Aligning Higher Education in Ukraine with the Demands for Data Science Workforce
Accelerated technological development in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution changed the nature of competition in world markets, increasing the importance of technological opportunities as a source of competitive advantage and identifying technology as a key factor in production. Every year, digital technologies change everyday life, creating the foundations for sustainable socio-economic development. Changes resulting from the revolution in information technology signal the need for new approaches to training, particularly in Ukraine. Technologies are improving at a fairly rapid pace, but the methodological base at the level of Ukrainian high education institutions (HEIs) is adapting to such changes rather slowly, which, accordingly, slows down the process of “smarting” of education. In turn, graduates are not the most attractive for the modern labour market. This article highlights the urgent need for extensive training in this area. In turn, the paper aims to offer a case of the study programme for graduating data science analysts (DSAs). The original approach is the master degree programme case for the social science faculty but not for engineering faculty as it is traditionally. The necessity of DSAs is extremely high in the economic field/business however mostly graduates of the engineering faculties having strong programming skills lack the economic knowledge and understanding of business laws. The contribution of the paper is that the proposed program differs from existing ones on the market, but is not implemented in HEIs, with its systematical adaptability to the requirements of the state standard; as well it meets all the requirements of employers in the field of Data Science. The paper is mostly in the practical and descriptive area thus the methodological base of the research are general scientific research methods like historical method, comparative analysis, methods of analyses & synthesis, system approach and logical generalization.
Silviu Nate, Daniel Mara, Alin Croitoru, Felicia Morândau, Andriy Stavytskyy, Ganna Kharlamova
The Interest Level Assessment in Attending Training Programs among Romanian Teachers: Econometric Approach
The article explores the determinants of Romanian in-service teachers’ willingness to participate in a national training program focused on mentoring in education. A multidimensional analytical model and survey data collected from a large sample of Romanian teachers (N > 5000) revealed a specific profile of those teachers who are interested in joining this type of training in education. It is found that individuals’ interest in joining the training program is positively affected by a higher level of education, prior experiences of attending training programs, and higher awareness of the role of mentoring in education. At the same time, individuals’ self-assessed needs for training and more challenges faced in online/blended teaching during the pandemic period also increase the teachers’ chances to be interested in joining the training program. However, a negative relationship is found between age and the willingness to enroll in the training program. Based on these general findings, the article advances the comparisons between three subsamples of teachers depending on their teaching level (primary education, lower-secondary education, and upper-secondary education). The study is designed to contribute to the general debate on reforming education systems through mentoring in education, and its findings can inform policymakers and stakeholders in the field.
Erstida Ulvidienė, Irma Meškauskaitė, Andriy Stavytskyy, Vincentas Rolandas Giedraitis
An Investigation of the Influence of Economic Growth on Taxes in Lithuania
Ekonomika 2023, vol. 102(1), pp. 41–59. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2023.102.1.3
The level of economic interstate competition has been growing significantly in recent decades. Countries are constantly trying to apply lower tax rates to attract large businesses to their territory. They are also trying to improve the efficiency of tax collection on their area of jurisdiction. The paper examines how economic growth affects Lithuania’s tax collections. Based on quarterly data of the 2002–2022 period, ARDL models for the main types of taxes were considered. We find that for all types of taxes, the models have the same structure, which allows comparing the impact of gross domestic product on tax collections both in the short term and in the long term. Analysis showed that the largest reserves are in the corporate sector, where the growth in tax revenues exceeds gross domestic product growth by 115%. The long-term effect for general taxes is almost 19% higher than the growth of the tax base, that is, the Lithuanian economy as a whole has a tendency for a reduction of the shadow economy, which means that there are significant opportunities for further growth.
Silviu Nate, Andriy Stavytskyy, Ganna Kharlamova
Index of the Openness and Transparency of Budgeting and Financial Management of the Defence and Security Sector: Case of Ukraine
Sustainability,2023, 15(7), 5617; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15075617
Currently, the military actions on the territory of Ukraine require significant support from EU countries and partners in providing military and material assistance. The issue of openness and transparency of budgeting, particularly in the defence and security sector, becomes even more significant. The peak of interest in the literature on the issues of openness and transparency of budgeting appeared in 2005–2006. However, in Ukraine, which has largely continued to follow Soviet trends, this is an alarming subject. It has been brought to the forefront by the events after the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. One of the ways to guarantee the openness and transparency of budgeting is the development of a suitable open data system, which includes the analysis of all financial costs based on the proper methodology. Such a methodology should be founded on the concept of assessing the openness and transparency of budgeting and financial management of the defence and security sector of Ukraine at the current stage in the conditions of war and, after it, be measured quantitatively and implemented using IT. This article aims to consider the methodology of an index of openness and transparency of budgeting and financial management of the defence and security sector and to implement it in the case of Ukraine. Based on the conducted literature review, a new method to calculate the index of openness and budgeting transparency of the defence and security sector of Ukraine is built. Nine separate indicators are defined, and each of them affects the final value of the index. Some indicators have a binary form, and some have a scale, which is used to estimate their specific weight of impact. This approach makes it possible not only to monitor the openness and transparency of the defence and security sector but also to show the dynamics of the development of the phenomenon and compare it, in the future, with other countries. Based on calculations for 2008–2021, the trend of this index is shown for Ukraine, and conclusions are made regarding its further application.
Silviu Nate, Ganna Kharlamova, Andriy Stavytskyy,
Roundtable Discussion on Ukrainian Reconstruction After the War: Key Policy Paper and Recommendations
Access to Justice in Eastern Europe. 2023, 3 (20). P. 204-220. https://doi.org/10.33327/AJEE-18-6.3-n000321
Background: The work examines the results and conclusions of the roundtable held on May 24, 2023, within the framework of the research project. The participants of the event discussed the main challenges that the Ukrainian government will face after the war when restoring the economy. The war and Ukraine’s expected victory should significantly change the geopolitical and economic situation in the world, change the understanding of energy as a weapon, and thus, create a guarantee of energy independence for the entire European continent. Scholars, policy makers, scientists, and practitioners joined together in discussion about addressing the needs of Ukraine after the victory, during the reconstruction phase. The participants noted the inevitability of institutional changes in the Ukrainian state, which is required by the future accession to the EU and NATO. However, in addition to economic challenges, Ukraine will face a complex of significant post-war problems: ensuring social stability, restoring infrastructure, ensuring the integration of the military into peaceful life, restoring the ecology of the territories where military operations were conducted, and significantly reforming the judicial system.
Results and Conclusions: The policy paper concerning Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts was announced as a result of the roundtable. It was highlighted that, to establish a future regional infrastructure and foster a win-win business perspective, it is crucial to engage in practical discussions with the Romanian government and private companies. Creating a shared business platform would facilitate the transition from expressing interests to direct participation in the recovery process. To achieve broader reconstruction goals, it is essential to involve other Western industry actors from countries like Germany, France, Italy, the U.S., the UK, Poland, Norway, etc., with their financial, technological, and implementation capabilities.
E. Ulvidienė, I. Meškauskaitė, V. Giedraitis, A. Stavytskyy
The Relationship between GDP and Tax Revenues from the Market of Gambling and Lotteries in Lithuania
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2023; 1(222): 148-155. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2023/222-1/19
More than two decades after the legalisation of gambling and almost three decades after the beginning of the organisation of lotteries in Lithuania (the Gaming Law of the Republic of Lithuania came into force in 2001 and the Law on Lotteries in 2004), it is already possible to discern the trends in the development of this business and the impact of this business on the individual and on society. Gambling and lotteries are seen ambiguously both in the work of researchers and in society: some see the activity as a fun pastime or a form of leisure, while others argue that it is an addiction with negative psychological, social and economic consequences for the individual, the family and society. In Lithuania, there has been very little research on the impact of gambling and lotteries on individuals and society, compared to other countries such as Italy, the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. In these countries, gambling and lotteries have a very long and deep tradition, are a very important area of the economy (business) and a popular way of spending leisure time. This article examines the development trends of the gambling and lotteries market in Lithuania. The study made use of quarterly time series data including from 2004Q1 to 2021Q4. During the research we established, that every year, the income from land-based gambling decreases and the gross income from online gambling increases. In 2021, 53 percent of the gross gambling and lottery revenue structure was from online gambling. Additionally, according to the of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the paper estimated the relationship between the gross domestic product of Lithuania and the tax receipts of gambling and lotteries to the Lithuanian state budget. According to the study, GDP growth influences gambling and lottery tax revenues directly, without postponed effect, but at the same time, there is a fairly strong inertia in budget revenues from gambling and lottery.
A. Stavytskyy, G. Kharlamova, V. Shpyrko
Financing Ukraine's defense expenditures: a new geopolitical paradigm or preservation of sustainable trends?
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2023; 1(222): 126-140. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2023/222-1/16
The largest military conflict in Europe since the Second World War raises natural questions about the economic justification of its causes and its impact on various sectors of the economy. First of all, the defense sector comes under analysis, in which significant changes have taken place in all countries over the last decade. A significant critical review of the literature is carried out in the paper. It revealed how the degree of financing of the defense sector, the transparency of such financing, and its size affect the development of national security and defense resilience, how deeply these issues were considered from a methodological point of view. The research examines the issue of defense spending in Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the EU, the USA, and China. It is shown that these countries observed different trends in the financing of the army, which was caused by different strategies and approaches to the probability of a high-intensity military conflict. Based on economic and mathematical analysis, the paper demonstrates that the highest level of militarization was observed precisely in the Russian Federation, which was purposefully preparing for war. While Ukraine's military spending was roughly at the same level. The EU and the US had similar dynamics and stable amplitude in military spending. China had the stable percentage of military spending in the state budget. Given the current geopolitical situation, it is supposed to expect further increases in defense expenditures in all of the analysed countries to modernize their armies. The paper emphasizes the importance of transparency and effective budgeting in ensuring a strong and well-equipped army that can defend the country and strengthen its international position. One way to achieve transparency and openness in budgeting is through the development of an appropriate open information system based on the concept of assessing openness and transparency in budgeting and financial management in the defense and security sector of Ukraine, which should be quantitatively measured and programmatically implemented.
A. Stavytskyy, G. Kharlamova
The Use of Artificial Intelligence in Academic Publishing: Preliminary Remarks and Perspectives
Access to Justice in Eastern Europe. 2023 4 (21). https://doi.org/10.33327/AJEE-18-6.3-n000319
Artificial intelligence programs are constantly developing, becoming an increasingly powerful tool for solving various problems. First of all, attempts have been made to use artificial intelligence (AI) to generate new texts, but practice shows that the level of creativity exhibited by these programs is still insufficient for producing substantial articles. Of course, this will not prevent AI programs from developing text, including generation of not only dissimilar text, but capably accomplishing certain conceptual tasks. However, even today, it is possible to use AI programs to solve standard tasks in the preparation, editing, reviewing, processing, and publication of scientific texts. This article will provide an overview of the latest trends in the use of AI programs for academic publishing using examples of several scientific journals. We will look at different levels of AI and their impact on editorial work and review the potential of AI in complementing human input. Next, we will consider the following stages of working with scientific texts in the editorial offices of scientific journals: author and article registration in the journal system; initial analysis of the article; choice of reviewers; article review; communication with the author regarding received reviews; publication decision; proofreading and publication of work; its registration in database systems. In the conclusion, we summarise tips for editors on how to use AI.
Vincentas Giedraitis, Andriy Stavytskyy, Ganna Kharlamova, Erstida Ulvidienė
Bring on the light: reduction of the corporate shadow economy by tax reform
Access to Justice in Eastern Europe. 2023 4 (21). https://doi.org/10.33327/AJEE-18-6.4-a000410
Background: Our preliminary research shows that tax reform can have a meaningful impact in reducing the corporate shadow economy of a society. Countries are constantly applying lower tax rates to attract large businesses to their territory. They are also trying to improve tax collection efficiency in their jurisdiction area. We study the relationship between the Baltic countries' tax systems and the shadow economy level within their respective economies. Our research examines how economic growth can reduce the corporate shadow economy due to changes in tax collections.
Methods: Based on quarterly data from 2002-2022, a panel regression was chosen for the analysis, which allows for determining the impact of each specific tax on the level of the shadow economy separately, considering all three samples as one synergistic system.
Results and Conclusions: Thus far, we find that for all types of taxes, the models have the same structure, which allows for comparing the impact of gross domestic product on tax collections both in the short and long term. Our analysis showed that the effective income tax rate growth increases the shadow economy; that is, the country's citizens attempt to move into the shadows. At the same time, the growth of the effective corporate income tax rate, on the contrary, reduces the level of the shadow economy. A positive increase in the effective VAT rate also contributes to the growth of the shadow economy. The long-term effect for general taxes is almost 19% higher than the growth of the tax base. Thus, as to the Lithuanian economy, for example, it has a tendency for a reduction of the shadow economy, which means that there are significant opportunities for further improvement..
Ganna Kharlamova, Andriy Stavytskyy
Ukraine needs to think about its economic future after the war
Democracy in action. URL: https://democracy.uia.no/after-the-war-rebuild-ukraine/
As of today, Ukraine is embroiled in a brutal struggle to remain an independent state, making it difficult to look beyond unfolding military events. Few, then, would be confident in predicting the circumstances amid which the country will eventually emerge from war and embark on its long road to recovery. The question of which sectors or areas of industry Ukraine should pursue when the time comes to relaunch its economy remains perilously unclear.
A. Stavytskyy, G. Kharlamova, V. Shpyrko
Influence of political and technological factors on foreign direct investment: comparative economic and mathematical analysis of Ukraine and countries of the world
Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, 2023; 2(223): 131-142. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2023/223-2/18
Background. Over the past quarter-century, there has been a noticeable increase in Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), especially in developing countries. The relevance of this research stems from geopolitical changes, technological progress, and the crucial role of FDI in financing economic and social development. This article is dedicated to examining Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the context of determining factors that make a recipient country attractive.
Methods.The chosen key influencing factors include political and technological aspects across seven different countries worldwide, including Ukraine. By employing regression modeling methods on these seven countries (Ukraine, Germany, the United Kingdom, Lithuania, Romania, the United States, and Japan), we have identified the key factors that have the most impact on FDI in each of these countries.
Results. The analysis underscores the importance of factors such as political stability and the import of ICT goods for attracting FDI to Ukraine. The article concludes by emphasizing the significance of attracting FDI for the reconstruction of infrastructure, businesses, and the IT market, particularly with regards to funding from international organizations and investments from international corporations in Ukraine and other post-war partner countries. However, this involvement requires the achievement of political stability in the country, as well as the formation of an economy aimed at exporting goods. It is for this reason that the opening of international markets for Ukrainian products is quite crucial.
A. Stavytskyy
Russia’s War in Ukraine: Mobilisation in Wartime
In the third year of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the need to rotate most Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel has become urgent. Ideally, this should be completed by February 2025. This will, in turn, require the mobilisation of around half a million people, dealing a significant blow to the Ukrainian economy and challenging military training structures.
S. Nate, A. Colibășanu, A. Stavytskyy, G. Kharlamova
Impact of the russo-Uainian war on black sea trade: geoeconomic challenges
This paper investigates the strategic importance of the Black Sea region in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Focusing on trade dynamics, geopolitical actors, and regional cooperation, the study analyzes the region's transformation and the resulting implications for global trade. The paper examines how the conflict has redefined trade relationships among Black Sea nations and major powers. For this purpose, trend models are evaluated for three-time samples for the export and import of products of 7 countries of the Black Sea Basin in both nominal and relative dimensions. In total, the evaluation and analysis encompass 1764 econometric models. Noteworthy trends include the evolving roles of the EU, the Middle East, and Russia, the potential resurgence of Ukraine, and Turkey's mediating role. The post-conflict landscape could witness heightened Western influence and continued Chinese engagement.